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Week 6 NFL Teaser Time

Our top teaser this week looks at two home teams of impressive wins and the first divisional tilt of the season between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals.

 

3-TEAM, 10-POINT TEASER OF THE WEEK

New York Jets +8 over the Colts

Steelers at Bengals Under 61

Minnesota Vikings -.5 over the Cardinals

 

  1. NEW YORK JETS +8

Indianapolis comes into this game with a few extra days of prep following their road loss in New England. Other than working on draft strategy for 2019, what does a team like the Colts (1-4) do with extra days off? I’ll tell you what conference road dogs off a Thursday road loss don’t do the following week, and that’s win. Teasing against these teams is 23-2 and yeah, I know all about how the Vikings just won in this exact spot at Philly last week following their loss in Los Angeles. But before that, you were probably in grade school the last time it happened.

 

The Jets were home this week and while it’s not some big travel advantage over Indy distance wise, it is nice being home for two in a row while your opponent is living out of a suitcase. The past 10 years, conference home faves in this 2-and-2 situation are 39-6-1 with the tease, winning straight up at a 70-percent rate. This is not the Bronco defense New York is facing on Sunday and with Minnesota, Chicago and Miami on-deck, Sam Darnold should take advantage of this opportunity to fine tune his passing game.

 

  1. STEELERS AT BENGALS UNDER 61

Cinci has a decent record in these closely lined home games of late, so it was tempting to back the Bengals with a touchdown but Pittsburgh has just owned them. In the last 29 visits, the Steelers are 21-8 ATS at Paul Brown and when getting points that record goes to 5-3 SU/ATS. Besides, when I look at who Cinci has beaten at home in tightly lined games the past couple years, I see faults:

 

– Ravens this year, Week 2: Baltimore travelled on a short week and during the first half they looked dazed and confused.

 

– Lions last year, Week 16: Detroit’s defense was just as bad then as it has been in most games this season.

 

– Bills last year, Week 5: Buffalo’s starting QB in that game is now a bench warmer for the Cleveland Browns. That’s like ‘meme’ material for when you’re making fun of someone.

 

The Steelers scored 41 points last week and allowed 14, both of which are personal bests for them in 2018. It prompted bookmakers to open this total at 54 and the free fall began. Cinci knows they need to win this game on defense and because it’s the first meeting between division rivals, it fits an Over/Under system that is 54-6 when backing the under in a 10-point teaser. Just make sure you get this line at 60 or better.

 

  1. VIKINGS TO WIN OUTRIGHT

The Vikings improved to 2-2-1 with last week’s win over Philly and it was impressive how that team fought back from the high scoring loss in LA to grind one out in such a tough venue. It shows you how big a role ‘playoff revenge’ can play in the right circumstances.

 

*Side note here for anyone considering some action on the Seahawks-Raiders game in London: Teams off the Rams since the start of last season are now 15-4 ATS after Minnesota’s win over the Eagles. Have a look at Seattle for a play on Sunday!

 

Anyway, maybe this ATS line is too big for a flat bet but the first five .500’ish teams this season laying big wood are 5-0 straight up. Minnesota’s loss to Buffalo doesn’t count because they were 1-0-1 at the time, so technically 1.000 in terms of win percentage. And speaking of that loss to Buffalo, Kirk Cousins better not let something like that happen again or he’s going be watching Trevor Siemian throw passes. Cousins fumbled three times in that game, threw one pick and was sacked four times. Pass protection is still an issue but he hasn’t thrown a pick since, and he’s thrown 87 pass attempts (66 of 87; 76%).

 

Mike Zimmer at home against bad teams is almost automatic and home teams off a win against the reigning Super Bowl champ are 84-percent in a teaser, with big faves going 12-1 straight up. This is not a cakewalk for the Vikings but we have them winning this game straight up by seven.

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