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Week 15, Saturday Night Football: Miami Dolphins at New York Jets 

 The Miami Dolphins fought hard for a win last week but they lost their starting quarterback in the process. QB Matt Moore is under center while Ryan Tannehill recovers from a sprained right knee and although Moore has experience, he is walking into a war zone. 


Line: Dolphins -2.5 and O/U 38 

Our charts that track the efficiency of Miami’s offensive line peaked in Week 11 and they have been in a downturn ever since. The Dolphins benefited from wins vs. weaker opponents — the Bills, Jets, Rams and Niners — but their flashy rushing stats started to dip against San Diego and they have not broken 100 yards since.

Injuries played a major role, with LT Branden Albert (wrist) missing action and C Mike Pouncey (hip) eventually being shutdown for the season. Moore will be expected to lean on the run game while he gets comfortable with his receivers but in cool, windy and possibly wet conditions at MetLife Stadium, ‘comfort’ may not be an option at any point in this contest. 

New York’s offense has been one of the more inconsistent units all season. They finally made the decision to get Bryce Petty in the game, rather Ryan Fitzpatrick made it for them with his abysmal play, but Petty is a work in progress. Petty completed 23 of 35 passes in San Francisco for 257 yards and one pick. His ratio on the season is now 2 TD to 4 INTs and we get the feeling a lot of this game is going to be played between the 20’s. 


Like most teams, the Jets won their battle of possession vs. Chip Kelly last week with 37:39 in regulation and 41:44 including overtime. Small divisional home dogs off a high possession game have played 9 overs and 19 unders in the past few years and the Jets are also “live” in a profile for teams with a poor turnover margin. New York has not finished with a positive margin in five-straight weeks and these teams are a 68-percent play to the under.

New York fits a strong revenge angle for divisional dogs at this stage of the season that has helped generate a 60-percent record over the span of 10 years (101-151-5 O/U). The fact that they have such a poor win-loss record also activates a late-season system for home dogs that is 5-15-1 O/U the past 21 plays. This is the first time it has been “live” in 2016 and it seems like a good candidate to keep the 75-percent record headed in the right direction. 

Miami’s Wild Card hopes are still alive but they have a road game in Buffalo on-deck before closing against New England. The Dolphin defense should be up for the challenge of keeping Petty in check but we can’t expect too much from this offense. 

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