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Sunday NFL Best Bets, Week 6

When the Jacksonville Jaguars took down the Patriots in Week 2, it looked like this team was serious about taking another run at the conference title. Then Jacksonville ran into a firestorm last week in Kansas City, giving up 30 points for the first time since the divisional round in Pittsburgh. On the road for a second-straight week, we’ll see how this team responds against a Dallas Cowboys team that was suffocated Sunday night in a 19-16 loss at Houston.

 

JACKSONVILLE (3-2) AT DALLAS (2-3)

Spread: Jaguars -3

Since the start of last season, Blake Bortles has rebounded well from losses with five covers against difficult teams: Ravens, Steelers, Colts twice, which is more ‘important’ from a divisional standpoint than difficult, but still. They beat the Jets handily this year, too, rebounding from the low scoring home loss against Tennessee. It’s a characteristic of savvy quarterbacks on strong defensive teams, knowing how to get out of their own way. And I’m not ready to crown Bortles just yet, but I like this setup and the line.

 

Teams off a loss in the first of a two-game road trip are always more likely to cover in the second game. It’s based on line value and public perception. Tighten things up with this game being non-divisional and far enough into the season that our D has started to gel, and the win percentage for these teams gets even better. The icing is the fact Jacksonville has a divisional game on-deck vs. Houston.

 

It’s easy to write this off as a look-ahead spot for the Jags but the players and coaches know how important it is to rebound from a road loss. When you add the fact that Dallas is averaging just 17 points per game on offense, the record for our road team in this spot improves to 61-31-4 ATS (66%). In recent years, the road team here is 16-5 ATS.

 

Dallas has fallen short of its projected team total in four of five games this year. More than 40-percent of their offense comes from one player and the Jags’ D-Line ranks 4th against the run. This D is 1st in total yards (292), 5th on third downs (.308), 2nd in red zone scoring and 3rd in points allowed at 17.2 per game. This is not a good spot for Dallas to break out.

 

The Jaguars had some key personnel on the injury report this week, holding the chalk line down to -3 points, but that’s starting to adjust following Friday’s practice. Four of five starters on the O-Line are good to go, but LT Josh Wells (groin) is out. Josh Walker will start in his place. On the defensive side, the front seven checks out and CB Jalen Ramsey (knee) is also expected to start.

 

Dallas had some good news when LT Tyron Smith (ankle) was cleared but they are still without stud LB Sean Lee (hamstring). QB Prescott’s top target not named Zeke Elliot, Cole Beasley (ankle), also went full on Friday so Dak will have all weapons at his disposal. We just don’t see it being enough.

WEEK 6 BEST BET SIDE: Take the Jaguars

 

LA CHARGERS (3-2) AT CLEVELAND (2-2-1)

Over/Under Odds: 45

The Browns (4-1 ATS) have been big moneymakers for Dawg Pound bettors this season but the Chargers are cashing “Over” tickets at the same rate, and we are looking for some scoring in this one. Phillip Rivers and the Chargers made this three timezone trip once earlier this season and they lit up a punchless Bills team, 31-20. In this line range, the Chargers fit a travel system that has generated 20 overs in the past 24 opportunities, and this total has been getting bet up. In the past three years this system is 5-0 O/U with games averaging 59 total points per game.

 

To get a win this week the Bolts better plan on working overtime, because Cleveland has already gone into the fifth three out of five times this season! Home teams off a home overtime win are 14-4 O/U, allowing 26 points per game (PPG), which is just shy of the Chargers’ 8th ranked 27.4 PPG average. LA has also been giving up 26 a game, however, and Baker Mayfield’s offense is licking its chops.

 

This Browns defense is legit and anyone that bet Cleveland’s season win total to go over has to be feeling pretty confident right now, but this isn’t shaping up like that divisional grind from last Sunday. This is a game where you need to score at least 28 points to win and other than some 10-20 mph winds, the forecast looks good.

WEEK 6 BEST BET TOTAL: Take the Chargers-Browns OVER

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