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Monday Night Prediction, Week 16: Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys

The point spread is falling in Monday night’s match up between the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys as bettors weigh their opinions on who will play and for how long. 

DETROIT (9-5) AT DALLAS (12-2)

Line: Cowboys -6.5 and O/U 44.5

The last time these teams met was in the 2014 playoffs, a 24-20 win for the Cowboys that sent them to Green Bay. Dallas doesn’t want to talk about how that game finished anymore. They are focused on the fact that they have clinched the NFC’s top seed and how the road to Houston must now come through AT&T Stadium. 

Detroit has a huge home game against the Packers (9-6) on-deck to determine the NFC North champ. Even with a win over Dallas, the Lions will still need to beat Green Bay in Week 17 by virtue of their Week 3 loss at Lambeau Field. The Lions would surely like to regain some momentum after last week’s loss to the Giants and they’ll be facing plenty of backups in the Dallas defense. DE DeMarcus Lawrence, DT Cedrick Thornton, LB Justin Durant and CB Morris Claiborne have already been ruled ‘Out’ and DE Tyrone Crawford is questionable. 

The Lions have held eight-straight teams to 20 points or less and all eight games stayed under the total. Only two of those offenses, the Redskins (4th) and Saints (6th), rank anywhere near the potency of Dallas’ top ranked unit but figuring out how Jason Garrett will approach this game is anyone’s guess. 

QB Dak Prescott was 32 of 36 in last week’s win over Tampa Bay and home faves off such a proficient day passing are 13-2 ATS (87-percent), winning by an average of 17 points. Detroit has slowly but surely been improving its defensive play this year but they still rank 30th overall and 25th in opponent yards per play (5.8). During their eight-game under streak the Lions have allowed 5.4 yards per play, which would rank them 11th overall, but the record for big road dogs in that range is just 7-17-1 ATS. With a total of 45 or more the dog was 1-8-1 ATS and seven of 10 games finished over the total. 

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