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Monday Night Prediction, Week 13: Redskins at Eagles 

Washington is in Philadelphia to close out the Week 13 NFL card and if either of these teams hopes to make a last gasp effort towards the division title, it all starts with this Monday nighter.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (6-5) AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (5-6)

Week 13 Monday Night Football Odds: Eagles -6 and O/U 45

When uploading the detailed injury report for this matchup you almost need to have an extended hard drive on hand. Between the two teams there are 24 players that have been assigned to season-ending IR, a list that includes five O-Linemen from Washington plus their starting QB and four Philadelphia DBs.

Second string QB Colt McCoy made his first start in place of Alex Smith last week against Dallas and results were as expected. The offense took awhile to get going and by the end of the third quarter, Washington trailed by double-digits. McCoy was 24 of 38 for 268 yards with two TDs and three picks. He was also sacked three times making it four-straight games and eight of 11 times this season where the Skins surrendered at least three sacks.

While scrambling for his life, McCoy ended with more than one-third of Washington’s 80 total rushing yards and there is no easy solution in sight. Adrian Peterson (shoulder) is expected to play and we could also see RB Chris Thompson (ribs) in the backfield after a four-game absence. Having a two-headed threat can’t hurt but the O-Line still needs to open holes and prevent a similar script to what we saw in Dallas. McCoy’s record when trailing through three quarters is 1-14 SU and 2-13 ATS. He has led his team to an average of 5.8 fourth quarter points but still finished with just 13.2 points in those 15 contests. In other words, this guy ain’t no Brett Favre.

The Eagles ended their two-game skid with a 25-22 come from behind win against the New York Giants last Sunday. It was a nice bounce back from the uncharacteristic blowout loss in New Orleans a week before. The win evened Philly’s record at home this year to 3-3 and all six games have been decided by a margin of seven points or less. Often overvalued as defending Super Bowl champ, the Eagles are 1-5 ATS at the Link with 1 over and 5 unders. It assures that 2018 will be Philadelphia’s third season in a row with unders dominating the ledger and their updated record since 2016 is 6-16 O/U. The five-year record for divisional hosts with such a strong tendency toward lower scoring games is 19-42-1 O/U.

A fourth-ranked red zone defense has contributed to the pattern and at home they are even more formidable with a 60-percent effectiveness. Washington’s D is not far behind, ranking seventh overall, and the Skins are actually stronger on the road. In five away games this year the Skins have limited opponents to 19.2 points and they rank fourth in red zone scoring at 58-percent. Coach Jay Gruden has had success against divisional foes when the first meeting takes place on the road, going 4-1 ATS, but his one and only time facing Philly in this role turned into a shootout (2014). Washington covered but it’s not the type of game Gruden is planning for this time around. Philly’s home record in the first meeting of the season is 5-14 ATS with 7 overs and 12 unders. The past 10 with a total of 45 or more went 1-9 O/U.

PRIMETIME PREDICTION

Establishing a run game and protecting the football are Washington’s top priorities Monday night. The record for road teams on grass off a road loss where they were out-yarded is 65-percent ATS and nearly half the teams won straight up, but losing the turnover battle will quash any hope. As the Redskin offense struggles against the physical Philly front seven, the defense is going to play an integral part of keeping things close and tonight the Eagles qualify for a 65-percent Over/Under profile involving home faves off a comeback win. When the total is between 40-49 the record is 43 overs, 80 unders and a push. We can see the Eagles winning this game straight up but covering is a different story. With a lean to the road dog, our top play is on the under.

Week 13 MNF Prediction: Take the Skins and Eagles Under 45

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